Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Cheap Gas | Could we be sitting on a fuel bubble?

I remember when interest rates were falling in 2002 and all of a sudden, everyone and there brother wanted to buy a home. The Fed, reacting after the 9/11 tragedy, decided to lower interest rates at near historical rates in order to induce consumer spending. This has a profound effect on first time and bad credit home buyers as suddenly it looked like everyone could afford a home loan.
Since there were so many buyers on the market, home prices skyrocketed in most areas as people who normally could never afford a house found themselves getting loans for three or five times there average salary (or more) in order to get into the house they wanted.
Well, we all know how that story is playing out. The economy took a nosedive and homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages suddenly found themselves with a payment hovering at fifty percent more then they originally signed for. These people were then put in a position were they couldn't pay there mortgages and now there's a foreclosure crisis on our hands.
So what does this have to do with cheap gas? Well, what if speculation, a weakened dollar and lower then expected demand resulted in oil being overvalued. I'm not saying it is, and I doubt you would be able to find an economist at this point that would agree with that theory, but it is possible. Here's an article dated October 2007 where Russian Finance Minister says that oil is overvalued and that "Oil prices are at a speculative level and are being heated up by a host of conflicts in oil producing regions."
There is also this article where Exxon Chief Executive Rex Tillerson stated that he "cannot explain why we have $70 oil today. We are not having trouble finding oil. There is something else going on that I don't get." So, if oil is overvalued could we see a price correction at some breaking point, and what would that be? For most Americans, cheap gas had a set price, but the gas price roller coaster ride we have been on the last 5 years has made that cheap gas price rise up and up. As of this writing, gasoline is at $3.65 per gallon. If gas prices dropped to $3 people would be estatic, if it dropped even further to $2.50 per gallon it would pull us straight out of the economic doldrums we are currently in. But will it happen? I doubt we will ever see cheap gas as low as $2.50 per gallon again, but since we have even seen the high end of this gas price nightmare there's not telling what people will consider cheap gas in 2 or 3 years.


update 05.22.2008

Just to prove I'm not as dumb as I look, here's an interesting article I read today:

"Lehman's latest report - Is it a Bubble? - says commodity index funds have exploded from $70bn (£36bn) to $235bn since early 2006. This includes $90bn of fresh money. Energy takes the lion's share. Every $100m flow of investment money into oil lifts crude prices by 1.6pc, it said.
"We see many of the ingredients for a classic asset bubble," said Edward Morse, Lehman's oil expert."

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